Uganda targets 15,000 e-buses

From the newsletter

Uganda has set an ambitious plan to introduce a minimum of 15,000 electric buses and more than 10,000 fast electric chargers established in 3,500 public charging stations by 2040. This is according to a brief submitted to the country’s finance and economic development ministry by the Science, Technology & Innovation Secretariat. 

• The plan aims to produce 1GWh of batteries annually from the local battery manufacturing value chain and establish at least 1 battery recycling plant. Also, the Kampala Metropolitan Area will have electric motorcycles by 2026.

• The country’s automotive sector comprises 15% vehicle manufacturing, while 85% accounts for suppliers of spare parts and allied services; thus questioning the viability of these goals if local production will be a priority.

More details

• Uganda is advocating for local manufacturing considering the focus the country has given its automobile company. Kiira Motors has a production capacity of 20 e-buses per day, equating to approximately 7,200 buses annually if operated at full capacity year-round. However, the current output of only 27 units indicates significant underutilisation of Kiira Motors' installed capacity and highlights inefficiencies in scaling operations. This limited production reflects challenges such as funding constraints, supply chain inefficiencies, and insufficient market demand.

• To achieve the target of 15,000 e-buses by 2040, Uganda’s state-owned EV plant would need to produce 1,071 e-buses annually from January 2024 to December 2040. This would require consistent production, government funding, and private sector partnerships to meet the goal. Therefore, the Ugandan government alone may struggle to achieve this target due to limited resources and competing priorities.

• Uganda’s planned $1.74 billion investment in Kiira Motors by 2028 reflects a strong commitment to electrifying public transport and supporting local innovation. However, the country’s low manufacturing contribution (15% of the automotive sector) poses challenges for achieving extensive electrification. 

• Imports of fully assembled electric buses or CKD kits could bridge the gap, provided adequate financing mechanisms are in place. Brands such as BYD and Tata, known for their durability and suitability for African urban terrains, could complement local production efforts. However, strengthening local assembly and component production is essential to minimise reliance on imports and promote sustainable industrial growth.

• Regional partnerships with more experienced e-bus manufacturers, such as Kenya’s BasiGo or Egypt’s El Nasr, could provide much-needed technical expertise and boost production. 

Our take

• Companies like Sumitomo and JBM in Kenya could serve as potential partners for technology transfer, utilising Uganda’s production capabilities to serve the broader East African market. 

• Uganda’s unique approach to localise production could position it as a hub for East African e-bus manufacturing, but addressing inefficiencies and leveraging partnerships will be critical to matching the scalability of markets like Kenya and South Africa.

• Kenya’s BasiGo and Uganda’s Kiira Motors show contrasting approaches to scaling e-bus adoption. While BasiGo leverages partnerships with established OEMs and provides financing solutions to operators, Kiira Motors focuses on state-backed local manufacturing. South Africa and Egypt, relying on imports and local assembly, demonstrate how partnerships with global players like BYD can rapidly electrify fleets.