Managed charging, the success of EV adoption in Africa

From the newsletter

EV adoption is no longer a new concept in Africa. While adoption won't scale as fast as in developed countries, even at small pace grid planners and EV users should be worried about the potential of the grid to support mass charging. A new report published in Scientific Reports in October 2024 warns of potential strain on Nairobi's power grid. While increased electricity demand from EVs is expected to be moderate, unmanaged charging, particularly from private and commercial EVs, could cause issues during peak hours.

• Another study by WRI and MIT pointed out that Nairobi's current power infrastructure can sufficiently support a complete switch to electric for all two-wheelers and 10% of other vehicles, including private and commercial fleets.

• EV charging on the grid can improve the utility's efficiency by creating demand, especially in off-peak hours.

More details

• African cities have high population densities and a large concentration of high-income earners who own vehicles.

• Congestion in these cities makes motorcycles an efficient mode of transport for those without vehicles and in a hurry.

• In Kenya, where more than a third of the nation's vehicles are concentrated in Nairobi, clearly suggests that early adoption of private EVs is likely to cluster in affluent urban areas.

• Charging demand for private and commercial EVs differ. Commercial ones like e-matatus and e-buses are less likely to strain the grid because they primarily charge during off-peak hours.

• When not managed, charging of private and commercial EVs could strain the power system, particularly during peak hours, leading to significant demand spikes.

• Smart charging strategies could help mitigate the strain on the grid from private and commercial EVs by shifting charging to off-peak periods. This could reduce transformer replacement costs by 15-40%.

• Targeted infrastructure upgrades are needed in high-demand areas to optimise power distribution and support EV growth.

Our take

• The grid capacity problem is not unique to Kenya; it's an issue faced across Africa. Most utilities operate at a loss and lack the financial capacity for network upgrades, with little prospect for immediate change.

• The transition to EVs is happening at a slow pace, with no clear signs of scaling up soon. This may allow time for grid upgrades. 

• However, Africa possesses abundant solar resources, which could be instrumental in supporting off-grid charging solutions to alleviate grid strain. This approach is already being implemented in Kenya by CrossBoundary Energy and in South Africa by Zero Carbon Charge.