Watch out for the latest EV price dynamics

From the newsletter

The EV market in April has been characterised by pricing shifts and striking disparities. In Kenya, volatility was pronounced. An example is the BYD Atto 3 standard range, which retails for $40,704 in South Africa, yet costs $70,571 in Kenya. This raises questions about regulatory inefficiencies, dealer markups and opaque tax structures.

• In Egypt, prices remained largely stable, though selective price increases are evident—closely tied to currency trends. South Africa also demonstrated relative price consistency.

• The rand, its currency, weakened from 18.38 to 18.95 per USD. For businesses heavily reliant on foreign currency to source vehicles, this depreciation squeezes already slim margins.

More details

• According to analysis by Mobility Rising, South Africa, electric vehicle and e-motorcycle prices have remained largely unchanged over the past month. This price consistency offers a sense of reassurance to consumers and reflects relative stability in the EV retail market. However, the Vmoto TC Wanderer saw a 12.41% price drop, a move likely intended to retain buyer interest amid economic uncertainty.

• The weakening Rand has added cost pressures on distributors. Its slide from 18.38 to 18.95 against the US dollar has effectively raised the local currency cost of importing dollar-denominated EVs. Unless countered through hedging or price adjustments, this depreciation cuts directly into profitability.

• In Egypt, most EV prices have held firm despite persistent inflation and the devaluation of the Egyptian pound. A notable exception is the Volkswagen ID.6, which increased in price by 10.71%. This adjustment may reflect growing demand, inventory constraints, or adjustments in supplier pricing.

• Importers in Egypt gained a modest advantage from currency movements. The Egyptian pound depreciated from 50.5 to 51 per USD, triggering a 1.14% gain for dollar-based procurement. This margin gives distributors a buffer to either preserve profit or reduce consumer prices if the market demands it.

• Kenya’s e-motorcycle sector continues to show commendable price stability. Both the Spiro EKON 450 M1 and Ampersand GEN3 retained prices. This consistency suggests a maturing market supported by efficient supply chains, domestic assembly, or favourable import frameworks.

• A minimal price adjustment was seen in the Roam Air, which rose slightly. Although seemingly negligible, the increase may reflect subtle shifts in shipping costs, parts pricing, or operational expenses. It highlights how even well-managed EV firms remain sensitive to input cost dynamics.

• In contrast, the Hyundai IONIQ 5 witnessed a steep price surge of 22%. This sharp escalation could result from new tax classifications, import duty changes, or global pricing adjustments by Hyundai. For buyers, the jump places this model out of reach for many, dampening adoption prospects among Kenya’s emerging middle class.

• Currency stability offers little explanation for this rise. The Kenyan shilling moved only marginally—from 129 in March to 129.53 in April—showing no meaningful change. Against this backdrop, the steep price hikes for premium EVs raise legitimate concerns about affordability and pricing transparency.

Our take

• Local manufacturing allows OEMs to source components domestically or assemble vehicles within the country, reducing their reliance on imported finished products. This significantly buffers pricing from fluctuations in global currencies, especially the US dollar. In turn, vehicle prices remain more stable for consumers, even when local currencies like the Rand or Egyptian Pound weaken.

• Currency volatility continues to impact distributor profits and pricing decisions across all three countries. E-motorcycles remain the most price-stable segment across regions.

• Kenya’s significant price gap for similar EV models is a red flag. While the country shows strong consumer interest and e-bike uptake, the sharp discrepancy in premium EV pricing—such as the BYD Atto 3—calls for immediate scrutiny of dealer markups, import duties, or regulatory barriers.